Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
